I was going to do this on Twitter, but then I realized it would be too long and annoying to thread. This will obviously have spoilers for the whole series up to this point, including the first two episodes of Season 8. Read at your own risk.
So, here are my “who lives, who dies” predictions for Episode 3/The Battle of Winterfell (recognizing that it’s not impossible that the Battle will span more than one episode). Dead on the left, living on the right, and I’m stuck in the middle with you.
My guesses are grounded in my theory that the very last episode of the series will be winnowed down to essentially the same cast as the very first, excepting those who were dead before Season 8 started. If I weren’t committing myself to that, I think I’d have Theon and Bran on the other side of the chart. Theon definitely feels like noble sacrifice wight-fodder at this point, and it seems impossible that Bran’s “lure the Night King to the godswood” strategy is going to work, with three episodes left after this one, so they’d be easy to mark for death. I’m guessing, though, they have some plot armor to get them through to the endgame.
I also, broadly, think that those in possession of Valyrian steel will make it through Winterfell — which means Sam gave up his hall pass to Jorah. They just made such a big deal of the passing of that sword, it feels significant. I can easily see Jorah dying to protect Daenerys ultimately, but I don’t think it happens yet.
The exception to my Valyrian steel theory, however, is Brienne. I think she’s tragic toast. She was given too big a hero moment in episode 2, with the knighting. She got what she’s wanted her whole life. She’s been validated and supported by men she thinks well of. She’s been acknowledged. She’s happy. And so it feels like she’s reached the pinnacle of what the series would allow her and is going to go out in an epic act of heroism. Podrick probably goes down with her. (If this were a different kind of series, she’d be pulled back from that brink by someone, probably Jaime, reminding her that the problem with a death worthy of song is that you’re not around to enjoy the singing… But that’s not the sort of world this series lives in.)
Grey Worm made the mistake of making life plans for after the battle, which is hard to see as anything but a jinx.
Beric Dondarrion has been fighting for the Lord of Life for all of his improbably-prolonged life; it makes sense that he’d go down defending the living now. I’m thinking maybe he makes it through a lot of the battle and then does something heroic to help cover the retreat of the survivors.
Tormund has been excellent comic relief, but he’s really not necessary to anything going forward, and being a fan-favorite makes him an easy gut-stab for the audience.
The Hound, also, has been superfluous for a while now. Although… wait. He was in the first episode, wasn’t he? Damn. I might have to move him to the other column so as to be consistent with myself. Plus, it would give him the opportunity to finally engage with The Mountain, which the show has telegraphed a lot across the seasons. Okay, consider The Hound moved to the Dohaeris column. I had just genuinely forgotten he was in the first episode.
Royce is on the death list mostly because I only just remembered he’s still around? Representing the Vale, I guess? But he’d be an easy commander-figure to take out without actually offing any of the main characters. Same for Edd, really, which is a shame, because I enjoy Edd. But I think the 999th Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch is destined for death, so that, however the endgame turns out, the next phase of Westeros opens appropriately symbolically with the 1000th. (Though it’s an interesting thought… if they really defeat the Night King, will a Watch and a rebuilt Wall be needed?)
Clearly something terrible is going to go down in the crypts, which is what will do for Gilly and Sam, I think. I’m not sure if I’m convinced of the theory that seems to have simultaneously occurred to the entire fandom just as Episode 2 ended, that the Night King will power-up all the dead Starks. (Though the Episode 3 preview might well be canting in that direction with Daenerys saying, “The dead are already here.”) My hesitation is because I can’t recall quite how firmly the world has established its own rules on how wights are created. I can’t remember if they need direct contact from a Walker or not. I feel like they do? Yes, early on, wights re-animate inside Castle Black, but it’s pretty clear they’d been turned before they were taken back there and had just been in stasis or something. So, if the corpses in the crypts are in a position to be re-animated, it seems like the people down there already have plenty to worry about. And that may well occur — or maybe the Night King’s magic will reach them without direct contact. One way or another, the frosting of the crypts in the teaser trailers and the focus they’re given in the opening credits both seem to signal something major happening there, and I don’t think it’s just that people keep deciding to have poorly-timed conversations in front of Lyanna’s tomb.
Speaking of Lyanna — the other Lyanna, that is — she’s another fan favorite, it would hurt to see her go, but she’s not critical to the plot. Yes, we might all want to see her set up as Queen of the North when the dust settles, but do we really think the series is going to give us that? No. They want to hurt us. I mean, imagine that little bundle of ferocity suddenly going blue-eyed. (Especially if she doesn’t die first and goes Walker, not wight? She’d be a hell of a lieutenant for the Night King to have on hand).
Gendry is a gamble on my part. He’s one I’d put on the bubble of survival. But I suspect he does something dumb and heroic on Arya’s behalf. (As Dany told us last season and as Sansa reminded us last episode, heroes are really fond of doing dumb things that get them killed for the sake of love). It’s possible that happens a little later on, though.
Varys I’d also put on the bubble. I’ve got him in the death column largely because he’s been so ignored this season so far. They don’t seem to be investing in his future as a character. I could also see, however, Melisandre miraculously turning up to help him out of a tight spot in a “It’s not quite our time yet” sort of way.
Davos lives to keep being our Everyman, at least a little while longer. Missandei lives to make it hurt more that Grey Worm dies.
And then, I think, Daenerys has to have her dragons set fire to Winterfell to cover the retreat and to save the fallen from becoming wights.
I would love to be wrong about any and all of these. I would love this to be a different kind of series, less nihilistic, where it felt like more people would get to enjoy the future they fight for. But, well, that’s what fanfic’s for.